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Bread and Circuses (@breadandcircuses) · 11/2022 · Tröts: 4.179 · Folger: 9.454
Di 06.08.2024 14:33
Here is an interesting perspective on the accuracy — or *lack* of accuracy — in predicting just how soon climate tipping points might tip.
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A study published in Science Advances reveals that uncertainties are currently too large to accurately predict exact tipping times for critical Earth system components like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), polar ice sheets, or tropical rainforests.
These tipping events, which might unfold in response to human-caused global warming, are characterized by rapid, irreversible climate changes with potentially catastrophic consequences. However, as the study shows, predicting when these events will occur is more difficult than previously thought.
The researchers conclude that while the idea of predicting climate tipping points is appealing, the reality is fraught with uncertainties. The current methods and data are not up to the task.
"Our research is both a wake-up call and a cautionary tale," says lead author Maya Ben-Yami. "There are things we still can't predict, and we need to invest in better data and a more in-depth understanding of the systems in question. The stakes are too high to rely on shaky predictions."
While the study by Ben-Yami and colleagues shows that we cannot reliably predict tipping events, the possibility of such events cannot be ruled out either. The authors also stress that statistical methods are still very good at telling us which parts of the climate have become more unstable. This includes not only the AMOC, but also the Amazon rainforest and ice sheets.
"The large uncertainties imply that we need to be even more cautious than if we were able to precisely estimate a tipping time. We still need to do everything we can to reduce our impact on the climate, first and foremost by cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Even if we can't predict tipping times, the probability for key Earth system components to tip still increases with every tenth of a degree of warming," concludes co-author Niklas Boers.
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FULL STORY -- https://phys.org/news/2024-08-day-tomorrow-climate.html
So, if there is so much uncertainty — or *because* there is so much uncertainty, it seems to me that the only sensible choice is extreme caution. As stated above, we should be doing everything we can to reduce our impact on the climate, first and foremost by cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
#Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis
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