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(@anlomedad) · 11/2022 · Tröts: 3.753 · Folger: 566
Di 06.08.2024 14:15
#Bierman made the news in 2023 with a leaf found rock-bottom of an ice core from West Greenland.
His research history up to then:
Bierman 2014: Summit ice steady for past 2.7My as Be-Analysis shows
Bierman 2016: Be-record of East Greenland: ice stable for 7My.
Bierman 2023: leaves found in West Greenland, age 400ky.
I had tweeted that history last year and asked for verification in the other ice cores đ
https://x.com/anlomedad/status/1682586415148724229
So now Bierman re-visited an ice core from Greenland Summit et voilĂ ! Summit was ice free at least 1.1 Ma: https://theconversation.com/ancient-poppy-seeds-and-willow-wood-offer-clues-to-the-greenland-ice-sheets-last-meltdown-and-a-glimpse-into-a-warmer-future-233183
or paper https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2407465121
Sadly not dated more stringent. (Why tho?)
The distance from West-GL to Summit is only like Bordeaux to Bonn, so I'll just assume, Greenland was near-ice free 400ka in MIS11, too.
Which would strengthen the argument further that #AMOC gets tipsy from the speed at which freshwater is added, not the amount. Because: the sediment core plotted in the image in my post above shows how AMOC didn't tip at all in MIS11, despite Greenland being near or completely ice free (not only WestGreenland as I wrote in that post. I just hadn't seen the new article yet.)
And if that's the case: speed over amount,
then the freshwater experiment in #vanWesten 2024 is rather non-informative regarding our situation today.
High speed of freshwater inflow might even affect the Early Warning Signals they found â and on which they subsequently based the other 2 papers (which resulted in 2037-2064 and 2065/2085 as tipping years).
I mean, if you stress the system slowly, gradually, like in vanWesten's experiment or probably like it happened 400ka in MIS11, and also always wait for the system to find its equilibrium again,
then the Early Warning Signals might come at totally different locations
than when you stress the system with burst of huge amounts of freshwater like in our real world under forcings from fossil fuels and land use change.
It's like when one of your legs is shorter.
Increasing the stress on your skewed skeleton slowly by doing only very little leg-intense sports would for example lead to back pain after 10 years.
But if you stress your skeleton in burst of high forces like playing volleyball twice weekly, it's your knee that gives out and makes you stop stressing your skeleton at all, long before your back could start to hurt.
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